Despite the optimistic estimative delays on the distribution of the covid-19 vaccine might lower projection in the future
It is important to consider that the economical projections for 2021 are a bit less optimistic. Not in the sense that we might be expecting serious problems and crashes, especially after the vaccine campaigns have started. 2020 was a year of retraction that despite a pandemic existing, had possibilities of resilience. After all, surpassing difficulties is something that can be considered a very estimated reality independently of what went on last year. Now the situation in economical terms is being viewed as an upturn with lower projections expected.
The report came out on Tuesday, January 5th
The World Bank disclosed this report stating that the institution is expecting 3.7% for Latin America and 2.8% counting the Caribbean region this year. This activity is an expectation, after all, we are just entering 2021, considering a reality that many people will get vaccinated soon. And also another thing, this expected vaccination campaign is not yet clearly letting the world go out of the lockdown measures. In the World Bank’s own words:
Regional economic activity is expected to grow by 3.7% in 2021, as initiatives to mitigate the pandemic become more flexible, vaccines are distributed, prices of the main commodities are stabilized and external conditions improve …
In 2019, Brazil was presenting a small growth
But let’s first understand what GDP represents and how this index is calculated. GDP stands for Gross Domestic Product, a monetary measure which is a value integrated inside all the goods and services produced in a Country during a period of time. This index in 2019, according to the World Bank had about 0.9% of increase. Remember one thing, we didn’t have the covid-19 issue in that particular year as a pandemic. So, we here are dealing with a very optimistic projection and one thing that might come up in everybody’s minds is the reason behind it. According to the International Monetary Fund, the real GDP growth in 2021 is also a bit optimistic, with an index of 2.8 percent.
You might be wondering why so many positive estimates
The economy is in fact showing signs of progress, despite the retraction. The fact is that covid-19 is not impacting so much as it was previously expected. And this, certainly, in a positive way, we have to recognize that people must continue doing business. Not to mention essential businesses that can’t stop running, grocery stores, food markets, pharmacies, etc. It all helps in the final count and considerations but certainly, pharmaceutical Companies are playing a big role currently. But this was true before covid-19 now gets more evident. For sure a reality since science started to have a real effect on the Health of people. Now it became not only a Public Health subject but also a lucrative business maybe beyond measure.
If you think that one thing is not dependent on the other, rethink
We might consider that small businesses standing strong and going online were the actual heroes of this economic hold. But in fact, pharmaceutical Companies and huge online businesses are now even bigger, nothing has stopped for them. Maybe for small restaurant owners that might have lost their savings right now after this situation, when even huge politicians were completely lost about lockdowns, yes or no! Of one thing we are sure, isolation measures helped many more sensitive and risky groups to remain covid free. Now we are getting the perspective of a worldwide vaccination campaign, let’s see where do we get from here.
We are living in strange times because we might have lost certainty about our future now. But in many ways, people are being able to stop the worst. Today strange things happened in the United States, so stay in touch for our next article because we are discussing interesting international topics. Don’t forget to follow us on our Linkedin page for more incredible content!
DATA.WORLDBANK.ORG.GDP growth (annual %) – Latin America & Caribbean. Available at: <https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=ZJ>.
IMF.ORG. Real GDP growth. Available at: <https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/[email protected]/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD/CMQ/WE>.